It can now be safely predicted that the budget session of Parliament will be a washout from the point of view of reform legislation. The opposition is in a clear mood to block every government move, and the Modi government also has not exactly dazzled us with an acute understanding of which way the political winds may be blowing.
The news of the moment is not the passage of the landmark Land Acquisition Bill by the Lok Sabha yesterday (10 March), but the Rajaya Sabha unceremoniously sweeping the Mines and Minerals Bill into a cold storage called "select committee", which has the power to delay and maul the bill at least for six months, if not more. No major opposition party has any problem with the bill, but bloody-mindedness prevailed. This means the fate of other bills passed by the Lok Sabha - insurance, coal mines, and land acquisition - will similarly be kept in cold storage.
This shows that we are a country of sore losers - with a well deserved reputation for harbouring the crab mentality. We are more interested in ensuring that someone else does not win than in trying to win ourselves.
Consider the evidence.
The Congress party, having made the claim that growth was high during its watch, has a vested interest in delaying reforms so that revival can be delayed and the blame can be laid at the BJP's door.
Representational image. AFP
The regional opposition that is viscerally opposed to Modi - Trinamool, JD(U), RJD and - to a lesser extent BSP and and SP - will work hard to stymie every reform move of the government. None of them ever had a development record barring JD(U)'s Nitish Kumar, but even Kumar is now driven more by envy and dislike of Modi, not development.
The opposition that is not viscerally opposed to Modi - BJD, AIADMK, NCP, etc - fears the BJP may emerge as a future threat to their home bastions. They too would like to humiliate it and curtail its power.
The same applies to allies like Shiv Sena, Akali Dal, and the Telugu Desam.
The Narendra Modi government has thus to accept the reality of endless delays and work on a new strategy to rescue its bills either in the monsoon or post-monsoon sessions of parliament. It needs a gameplan for the short term, when there will be huge disappointment among investors, and the medium term, when it has to get the legislation through. If these laws are not passed by end-2015, the economic revival will be slow and plodding - which will put paid to the BJP's chances in 2019.
The main elements of the BJP's gameplan involve the following, starting with the most obvious ones first.
First, the Sangh has not given Modi reason for heartburn during the budget session, but this needs to continue indefinitely since any ruckus on the communal front will curtail the effectiveness of the Modi government forever.
Second, all-out efforts have to be made to both retain existing allies and buy their allegiance for the passage of the stuck bills later this year, if needed through a joint session.
Third, the other non-enemy parties - AIADMK, TRS, BJD and NCP - need to be roped in for the next trial of strength through appropriate assurances on their concerns and use of the big stick, when needed. Politics is not a gentlemen's game. What the UPA could ensure with SP and BSP the NDA can surely do with its non-belligerent, non-allies.
Fourth, the BSP and SP should also be considered opportunistic allies on some legislation. The BJP should figure our what their asking price is for occasional political support - or covert help through strategically timed parliamentary walkouts.
The BJP should only treat Congress, JD(U), Trinamool and RJD as more or less permanent enemies - at least on current form. These are the rivals it should avoid compromising with, though even the Congress can sometimes be reasonable.
If the budget session is a legislative washout, the BJP should use the delay not only to lick its wounds, but to speed up executive action on the ease of doing business. That is something entirely in its hands.
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