New Delhi: Desperate times call for desperate measures. If the buzz in the political circles is to be believed, the Congress and the NCP in Maharashtra are mulling a proposal that could have far-reaching impact on the political equations in the state. After the disastrous performance in the general elections, both parties face the prospect of a rout in the assembly elections and this seemed have spurred some leaders in both parties into some drastic thinking. The proposal—an informal one—goes like this: hand over the reins to Sharad Pawar in the election campaign; in return the NCP will merge with the Congress.
While television channels flashed Sushilkumar Shinde’s name as the replacement for incumbent Prithviraj Chavan as chief minister of Maharashtra on the weekend, the fire seems to have gone out as the new line of thinking has taken over. The proposal, sources say, was mooted by the Congress. The regional party is believed to have conveyed to the Congress high command that it is open to lead the alliance in the assembly election under the guidance of Sharad Pawar, however a merger is not on the cards.
NCP chief Sharad Pawar. Reuters
Is a merger the only option? The alliance has 15 years of anti-incumbency and a poor show in the general elections to boot. This would mean rehabilitation of Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the process if NCP decides to merge with the Congress. It would also mean the dwindling of power for Ajit Pawar who enjoys popularity among majority of the NCP MLA’s. The struggle for absolute power post Sharad Pawar would then move clearly in favour of Supriya Sule. She is a known face in Delhi and would easily fit into the Congress’ scheme of things rather than her cousin who prefers to stay in his home state. This will also help Pawar grab the secular card, as a merger will only strengthen the “secular” forces in the state. NCP is still seen as more of a pro Maratha party rather than a pro minority organisation.
But the drawbacks are immense, as a lot of Pawar’s trusted lieutenants could jump ship to the BJP Shiv Sena camp. Many in the NCP, especially the second rung leadership may see the move of a merger as a sign of their wane within the new setup. Congress too has many leaders and a merger will lead to either exodus or another power struggle between the two sides. The possibility of Ajit Pawar opposing it tooth and nail becomes more of a reality. He may even keep the rebel group opposing the merger with him and keep the legacy of NCP alive.
“I have nothing to say about this as of now. It looks tough to say that we can even talk about a so called merger so quickly,” says DP Tripathi, senior party leader and Rajya Sabha MP from the NCP. “Pawar Saheb will be in Delhi soon and things will be clearer about our election strategy with the Congress,” he said.
For the Congress, they will get the biggest name of Maharashtra politics back into their fold. A change of guard at the CM level in this late juncture may not bear fruit for the party, as there are barely two months left for the elections. Bringing Pawar to the fore would mean a better and a broader alliance on the lines of what the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance stitched in the just concluded General Elections. Smaller parties can be roped in for bigger voter base. A resurgent Congress with Pawar will also give them better prospects in North, West and Vidarbha regions of the state. There is every reason to be concerned as the ruling combine was trailing in 111 of the 144 assembly segments that it currently holds during the 2014 Elections. The Congress has been the biggest loser as they led in only 15 of the 82 assembly seats that they hold, while NCP led in 18 of their 62 seats.
But with Pawar back in the fold, it is likely that all his detractors in the Congress will be sidelined in due course of time. It will be tough for the Congress to draw a line between keeping the party’s prospects afloat and denying tickets to sitting MLA’s as a rebellion could brew even before the elections are announced. If Ajit Pawar decides to stay back and form his own outfit, then the profits of the merger will be minimal.
For the party, a merger with NCP will be the first priority if they are to give Pawar the kind of sweeping powers that his party is demanding. The wounds of Telangana are still too fresh for the party to be able to give the benefit of doubt to Maratha strongman. K Chandrashekhar Rao too had promised to merger his Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS) with the Congress if the Centre decided to grant a separate state to Telangana. But TRS decided to stay put and went on to defeat the Congress by forming the first state government in India’s 29th state. "I have no information about this. NCP is our ally and our senior leaders will take their leaders into confidence before taking any decision on the alliance,” defends Rajeev Satav, Congress MP from Hingoli, Maharashtra.
The Pawar camp too is not sure what gains they will make in such a scenario. Pawar may be interested to lead the joint campaign against a seemingly strong Opposition, but is not keen to be projected as the chief ministerial candidate. He would prefer to appoint his daughter or nephew and ensure that his supporters are rehabilitated, or else the carefully built party organisation could crumble after he’s gone. They feel they are on a stronger wicket than the Congress because of them having more MP’s, NCP has 4 while Congress has only 2. There is also talk that the NCP may go alone to shed the baggage of the Congress, which will keep their options open in a post poll scenario in Maharashtra.
This is the Congress’ biggest fear, hence the formula not only to project Pawar as the face of the combine, but also to boost their party’s prospects in a seemingly lost election.
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