Two decades ago, when NT Rama Rao's Telugu Desam government in Andhra Pradesh was dismissed by the Centre despite a majority, he took to the streets. His supporters laid siege to the Raj Bhavan. It wrested power back not by a re-election or by the intervention of the courts by the sheer power of the angry people.
The Congress engineered a revolt in the TDP and sneaked into power by appointing, using the good offices of a pliant governor, Ramlal. That campaign to regain the lost power lasted a month and when the Assembly reconvened, the cine actor-turned-politician showed his numerical strength on the floor of the Assembly.
AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal. Naresh Sharma/Firstpost
There couldn't have been a humbler pie served up to the Congress party whose government in Delhi led by Indira Gandhi played its usual tricks.
Perhaps that was at the back of UPA-II's mind when it spurned Arvind Kejriwal's recommendation that the Delhi Assembly be dissolved and elections be held again was ignored, and a year-long President’s Rule imposed.
Kejriwal's popularity even on the day of his resignation, with the Congress not supporting the Jan Lokpal Bill even as it kept up the pretence of its outside support, was no less than what NTR had, with the spontaneous support for him manifest on the streets. It had unnerved the Congress. To say it was witless on how to neuter the TDP under NTR.
If he had done that, which fell very much within the methods which the AAP was inclined to even before the Assembly began to function with it as a minority, not even the single largest party, the country’s political scenario, especially during Lok Sabha elections, may have borne no resemblance to what is.
By not doing so, the AAP took to an entirely different route but uncharacteristic of it. The surge of popular support could have ensured that in the re-election, the AAP gained. Instead it took its case to the Supreme Court. This was a welcome but politically unproductive step and ended up explaining to the voters in the Lok Sabha polls why it quit after 49 days.
The AAP’s petition to the apex court saw the intent of the President’s Rule being explained by the Centre as a valid move since "the political situation was fluid" and "the possibility of another party/alliance staking a claim to forming a government could not be ruled out". "Political decisions taken at one point in time and alignments are known to change."
The changes in alignment, if at all, would have to be the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party joining hands, or the Aam Aadmi Party tying up with the BJP to form a government. At this point of time, as much as when the Attorney General put that across a month ago, there is no such possibility.
Neither on a future date.
That is why the AAP had moved the Supreme Court questioning the President’s Rule by keeping the Assembly in suspended animation. It had, by its recommendation asked the Lieutenant Governor, asked for fresh elections. Neither that, nor any realignment seems to be in the air. The bitterness during the Lok Sabha polls is an indication of that can rule it out.
The BJP and the Congress have been buying time in committing themselves to the idea of forming a government by forming an alliance or one offering outside support to the other. That is a possibility only arithmetically, not a political reality even in a milieu which sees very strange bedfellows.
Nor is the Centre in a hurry to reconsider its stance.
The political gains have been of the two parties, BJP and the Congress which have used the Kejriwal resignation upon the failure of his Jan Lokpal Bill to pass muster with even the party which offered outside support, voted against it. Now, AAP, they have managed to convince most voters, is a party that "ran away from its responsibility" and therefore "cannot be trusted".
That clever spin trapped AAP. The AAP presumption was that the recommendation of the Kejriwal cabinet that the Assembly be dissolved and fresh elections ordered would be heeded by the Lt Governor. Politics is not always played by the rules. Any room for mischief and it is to be expected to be exploited by the antagonists.
AAP’s serious error, in retrospect, was to have believed that the rule book would be honoured, and political exigencies alone would not be the guide of the Centre. By the time it sank in that the dissolution was not imminent, it got caught into the more onerous task of contesting elections to the Lok Sabha. Had it not done so, it would have committed hara-kiri.
The latest is the Supreme Court’s view is that "people’s right to have a democratically elected government", as stated on Thursday. And yet, the Congress and the BJP refuse to take a "firm" stand on formation of government in Delhi in place of the Kejriwal government that quit. The two parties have cited "fluid situation" and supported the Centre' stand.
The AAP is caught in the cleft end of the stick having stretched itself by fielding about 400 candidates across the country with a robust hope and confidence in the belief that the country is seeking an alternative to get clean politics. Kejriwal has spoken of desertions by a section of its support base which it cannot woo back easily.
Taking the legal route by approaching the apex court showed an entirely different visage of AAP. Had he not resigned, Kejriwal government would have been ineffective, constantly blackmailed by the Congress. But not being there has also meant a political price. The Congress and BJP wanted the AAP out of sight till the Lok Sabha polls were over.
BJP had no hand in the determination of the choice by the Lt Governor but stands to benefit in the Lok Sabha polls. The outcome seems to be going according to the script, and the loser here is the AAP. Instead of fighting with verve, AAP is forced on the defensive. Imagine Kejriwal campaigning not as an ex-CM but one who was in charge of Delhi.
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