The Fix: The new GDP number is unexpectedly low. It’s far too early to read much into it (politically).

By Philip Bump April 29 at 10:54 AM

Estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter came in at a lower-than-expected 0.2 percent, according to the Commerce Department. Given American politics, it's a safe bet that this will be used to hammer the Obama administration.

That's premature -- and the low figure probably won't end up doing much to hurt President Obama's approval rating at all, in fact.

There are pretty straightforward reasons for this.

The estimate will be revised

It's almost never the case that the initial figure released by the Commerce Department matches the figure after revisions. Since 2008, the initial estimate has always been revised, upward by 0.2 percent on average since 2012.

The biggest recent change was in the first quarter of last year, when an initial 0.1 percent estimate ended up being revised all the way down to -2.1 percent.

First-quarter estimates have been out of line with the rest of the year recently

The New York Times' Upshot blog pointed out that even after revisions, first-quarter estimates have drifted away from quarterly growth for the rest of the year since 2010 -- with first quarter growth being slower.

"Part of the problem may be that data for the first quarter are typically more variable than other quarters," writes Justin Wolfers, "and it is harder to accurately adjust highly variable numbers. Moreover, estimates of the economic growth rate in the first quarter have generally been revised downward over recent years."

GDP is only loosely linked to presidential approval.

Quarterly GDP growth or decline reflects real economic activity, of course. But it doesn't sync tightly with economic confidence, as measured by Gallup -- or with presidential approval, which itself has become decoupled with economic confidence recently.

Confidence has gone up fairly steadily, even at times that the GDP has declined. Obama's approval has dropped since the 2012 election, ticking upward again recently. His approval, as we have noted in the past, is often linked to how independents feel about him; Democrats love him and Republicans hate him and neither is budging much.

We made a graph earlier this year that showed how those who disapprove of Obama are less likely to say the economy is doing well.

[Why the Obama economy could benefit Hillary Clinton]

Politics is separate from reality in another way, too. You'll certainly see hand-wringing from the president's opponents about the slow growth and his policies and so on. It's too soon to make that argument. And it probably won't damage Obama's standing anyway.

Philip Bump writes about politics for The Fix. He is based in New York City.

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